Wafer transaction center shifted downward, high-purity quartz sand price expectations remain weak [SMM Silicon-Based PV Morning Meeting Summary]

SMM News on November 19:

Silicon coal

price: Driven by costs, silicon coal prices in some regions rose slightly, with Inner Mongolia silicon coal up 10 yuan/mt to an average of 1,260 yuan/mt, and Shaanxi silicon coal prices at 860-900 yuan/mt, up about 25 yuan/mt.

Supply: Washing plants maintained the pace of producing based on sales, arranging production according to orders. In some regions, operating rates declined due to rising prices and demand.

Demand: Procurement remained mainly for rigid demand, but downstream silicon plants were sensitive to prices and had low acceptance of high prices due to cost control.

Silicon metal

price: Yesterday, SMM oxygen-blown #553 silicon in east China was at 9,400-9,500 yuan/mt, down 50 yuan/mt from the previous day; #441 silicon was at 9,600-9,800 yuan/mt, flat from the previous day. In the futures market, the SI2601 contract opened at 9,050 yuan/mt and closed at 8,980 yuan/mt, down 100 yuan/mt from the previous day. This week, the spot silicon metal price center weakened WoW, with downstream procurement sentiment inactive and only rigid demand orders concluded.

Production:

In November, the decrease in silicon metal supply variables was mainly reflected in Sichuan and Yunnan regions, with a slight increase in the north. Overall, it maintained a significant reduction MoM, and the national total supply was expected to fall below 400,000 mt.

Inventory:

Social inventory: As of November 13, SMM statistics showed that the total social inventory of silicon metal in major regions was 546,000 mt, down 6,000 mt WoW. This included 127,000 mt in general social warehouses, flat WoW, and 419,000 mt in social delivery warehouses (including unregistered warrants and spot warehouse portions), down 6,000 mt WoW. (Excluding Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Gansu, etc.)

Silicone

price

DMC: Yesterday, transaction prices were 12,500-13,000 yuan/mt, up 1,600 yuan/mt WoW. Only Shandong monomer plants offered clear prices, while other monomer plants remained closed to offers. However, with the implementation control meeting of monomer enterprises, domestic DMC quotations were expected to increase slightly.

D4: Yesterday's quotations were 12,500-13,000 yuan/mt, up 850 yuan/mt WoW.

107 silicone rubber: Yesterday's quotations were 12,000-12,500 yuan/mt, up 750 yuan/mt WoW.

Raw rubber: Yesterday's quotations were 12,500-13,000 yuan/mt, up 950 yuan/mt WoW.

Silicone oil: Yesterday's quotations were 13,500-14,000 yuan/mt, up 750 yuan/mt WoW.

Production:

Previously idled units have gradually resumed production, and this week's supply increased slightly. Following the actual controller meeting yesterday, monomer enterprises plan to adjust their operating rate to around 70% starting December 1, and subsequent specific changes require continuous monitoring.

Inventory:

This week, monomer enterprises continued to focus on delivering pre-sold orders, and inventory levels remained relatively stable.

Polysilicon

Price:

Quotes for N-type recharging polysilicon were 49.7-44.9 yuan/kg, granular polysilicon at 50-51 yuan/kg, and the polysilicon price index at 52 yuan/kg. Market prices were largely stable, although recent declines in wafer prices impacted market sentiment. However, as polysilicon is not currently in the order signing period and top-tier enterprises showed strong determination to hold quotes firm, prices remained steady for now.

Production:

Polysilicon production in November was estimated at 127,000 mt, with normal production cut rhythms maintained in Sichuan and Yunnan regions.

Inventory:

Polysilicon inventory rose slightly this week. Wafer enterprises showed limited purchasing enthusiasm recently, but shipments from some previous low-priced orders led to a slight inventory buildup.

Wafer

Price

Market prices for 18X wafers were 1.23-1.3 yuan/piece, 210RN wafers at 1.25-1.3 yuan/piece, and 210N wafers at 1.6 yuan/piece. Prices declined across wafer sizes, but top-tier enterprises maintained firm quotes, while smaller plants sold spot orders at lower prices. We observed a widening gap between market quotes and actual transaction prices.

Production

According to surveys, wafer enterprises began implementing November production cut plans, with toll processing orders at specialized plants decreasing significantly. It is now largely confirmed that November wafer production schedules will decline MoM.

Inventory

The wafer inventory buildup trend slowed down. Solar cell plants showed evident bargaining sentiment and temporarily lacked strong restocking willingness. Total wafer inventory remained below reasonable levels, with top-tier enterprises holding prices firm for shipments.

High-Purity Quartz Sand

Price

Current domestic prices for inner-layer sand were 58,000-63,000 yuan/mt, middle-layer sand at 25,000-30,000 yuan/mt, and outer-layer sand at 17,000-21,000 yuan/mt. Long-term contract negotiations for imported sand are still in the second round, with expectations of significant price drops, which will maintain the downward trend for domestic high-purity quartz sand as well.

Production

Domestic sand enterprise operations are expected to decline in November, with top-tier enterprises appropriately reducing supply to alleviate inventory pressure.

Inventory

Quartz sand inventory levels increased slightly, as crucible enterprises have not yet started negotiations or purchases.